Vanderburgh County

Southwest Indiana, Indiana · 181K people · $13.5B GDP

Timeline
2026Present
NOW
EVENT HORIZON
2020202620302035204020452050
Southwest Indiana

Future Path

Pick a future path. Every number on this page updates with the impacts and the ranked actions for that path.

Disruption Profile

Baseline + Probable

High — Active disruption underway in key sectors

High — Median household income $52K (-20% vs state median) -- significantly below state average, limiting consumer spending and tax base.

High — AI Exposure Index: 60/100 -- moderate vulnerability to AI-driven workforce disruption.

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries

Minimal — Limited disruption signal

Minimal — Limited disruption signal

Vanderburgh County vs Indiana Average

Vanderburgh County exceeds Indiana average on 7/9 dimensions. Highest divergence: Social Trust (-25)

Click a dimension label to explore

Vanderburgh Indiana US Avg

Projected impact · 2026

Stakes for Vanderburgh County

Probable cone · 1.00x

With 92K jobs in Vanderburgh County and AI exposure at 60/100, here is what the model projects through 2031 under the probable cone (default 5-year horizon — scrub the timeline to extend).

Model: at-risk = workforce × (AI exposure ÷ 100) × ((year − 2020) ÷ 10, capped 0-1) × cone multiplier. Each STEEPE-point improvement preserves ~1% of at-risk jobs. The same formula runs backwards (retrodiction) and forwards (projection), so scrubbing pre-2026 shows what the model says was already exposed by that year.

See per-dimension breakdown

How 12 actions distribute across 4 dimensions, plus near-term vs medium-term lists.

If Vanderburgh County implements all 12 recommended actions, the model projects these dimensional improvements.

Education Value
50+23 pts
Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials /Pre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: Auto assembly routine production /Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline /Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Healthcare & Social /Sector-Pivot Scholarship Voucher
AI > AGI > ASI
58+12 pts
Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage /Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact /Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation
Economic Disruption
67+11 pts
Reduce Healthcare & Social Concentration Risk /Toyota Dependency Diversification Strategy
Social Trust
37+9 pts
Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response /Targeted Poverty Reduction in Highest-Need Areas
Near-term (1-3 yr)+51 pts

10 actions within local control

  • - Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials
  • - Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
  • - Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage
  • - Reduce Healthcare & Social Concentration Risk
  • - Targeted Poverty Reduction in Highest-Need Areas
  • - Pre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: Auto assembly routine production
  • - Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline
  • - Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact
  • - Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Healthcare & Social
  • - Toyota Dependency Diversification Strategy
Medium-term (3-7 yr)+4 pts

2 actions requiring partnerships or advocacy

  • - Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation
  • - Sector-Pivot Scholarship Voucher

Action Plan

Probable path

Top recommendations for Vanderburgh County, ranked by estimated impact. 12 total · +55 pts combined.

Who Can Act

Of 12 recommended actions for Vanderburgh County, 11 are within direct control. Tap a sphere to see the actions and what each one does.

Acting on the 11 local levers alone (+54 STEEPE pts) is the fastest path to shifting the probable→preferred future cone for this county.

Top Employers — Vanderburgh County

The 8 largest employers shaping the local labor market. Tap any row for the public-data profile and AI-exposure assessment.

Combined headcount across profiled employers: 55K globally · 1 vulnerable · 6 not yet profiled

Economic Development Authority

Evansville Regional Economic Partnership (E-REP)

READI 2.0 ($45M award)

Website

Target Sectors

Advanced ManufacturingLife SciencesTechnology/SoftwareSports & Entertainment

Active Programs

  • +Tri-State Manufacturers Alliance
  • +Young Professionals Alliance
  • +Innovation Pointe (startups)
  • +READI 2.0 project deployment

Recent Wins

Toyota Indiana $1.4B EV investment
$1.4B340 jobs2025
Polyram USA $12M expansion
$12M2024
READI 2.0 $45M award
$45M2024

Supporting detail

Open any section to dig into the underlying data.

Layoff history (WARN)

Federal layoff filings on the timeline

WARN Act Notices (2020-2026)

Notices

2

Workers

165

Layoff Rate

0.18%

of total employment

2025

0

Workers Affected by Year

75
2020
0
2021
0
2022
0
2023
90
2024
0
2025
0
2026

By Sector

Appliance Manufacturing
90 (55%)
Plastics Manufacturing
75 (45%)

Recent Notices

Whirlpool (Evansville)

Evansville · Appliance Manufacturing

Housing market slowdown reducing appliance demand, production consolidation

90

Aug 2024

Berry Global Group

Evansville · Plastics Manufacturing

COVID-19 demand disruption in non-medical packaging

75

May 2020

Source: Indiana DWD WARN. Federal WARN Act: 60-day notice for mass layoffs (50+ workers) at employers with 100+ employees.

Disruption scenarios

Exponential impact paths driven by the timeline

Exponential Impact Scenarios

Cross-signal alerts

When multiple risk signals converge on this county

Convergence Alerts

buildingAI-Economic Squeeze99% to trigger
Economic 78/60 ✓AI 58/60 Education 52/50 ✓

Approaching convergence threshold. 1 dimension still below trigger level.

Full economic profile

Demographics, employment, sectors, incentives

EVI: stableBASELINEMetro (RUCC 2)

Housing & Infrastructure

Median Home Value

$155K

Homeownership

64%

Median Rent

$825

Broadband Access

86.0%

Avg Commute

19 min

Labor Force Part.

63.5%

Very affordable market. Stable values without dramatic appreciation. Good workforce housing availability supports employer recruitment.

Employment by Sector

Healthcare & Social18%
Manufacturing (auto/plastics)16%
Retail Trade10%
Logistics/Transportation8%
Government7%

Population & Talent

Population

182K

Change Since 2020

-0.5%

Median Age

39

Flat population. Modest outmigration of young professionals offset by healthcare and manufacturing job retention. University of Evansville provides some talent pipeline.

State Incentive Programs

Available incentives from IEDC for business attraction and expansion in Vanderburgh County.

Economic Development for a Growing Economy (EDGE)

Tax Credit

Refundable income tax credits based on projected new payroll. Indiana's primary incentive for job creation. Credits calculated as a percentage of expected income tax withholdings from new employees over up to 10 years.

Max Benefit

Up to 100% of projected new payroll withholdings for up to 10 years

Eligibility

Companies creating new jobs in Indiana with above-average wages. Must demonstrate project would not occur in Indiana without incentive (but-for test).

Hoosier Business Investment (HBI) Tax Credit

Tax Credit

Non-refundable tax credit against Indiana income tax liability based on qualified capital investment. Supports companies making significant fixed-asset investments in Indiana facilities, equipment, and infrastructure.

Max Benefit

Up to 10% of qualified capital investment, carried forward up to 9 years

Eligibility

Companies making qualified capital investments of $1M+ in Indiana. Manufacturing, logistics, technology, and life sciences priorities.

Industrial Development Grant Fund (IDGF)

Grant

Performance-based grants for significant job creation and capital investment projects. Typically reserved for large-scale projects with transformative economic impact on a community.

Max Benefit

Negotiated; typically $1M-$50M for projects creating 100+ jobs

Eligibility

Major economic development projects creating substantial employment and capital investment. Competitive evaluation based on jobs, wages, investment, and community impact.

Skills Enhancement Fund (SEF)

Training

Grants to reimburse eligible training costs for new and existing employees. Supports workforce upskilling in advanced manufacturing, IT, and specialized technical skills.

Max Benefit

Up to $5,000 per employee trained; no cap on total employees

Eligibility

Indiana companies training employees in skills directly related to job functions. Priority for advanced manufacturing, IT, logistics, and life sciences sectors.

Headquarters Relocation Tax Credit

Tax Credit

Relocating a corporate headquarters to Indiana unlocks enhanced income tax credits. Designed for companies moving decision-making operations with high-wage executive and professional roles.

Max Benefit

Up to 100% of withholdings on relocated HQ employees for up to 10 years

Eligibility

Companies relocating corporate or divisional headquarters to Indiana. Must demonstrate significant executive/professional employment transfer.

Data Center Tax Exemptions

Exemption

Sales tax exemptions on qualifying data center equipment, electricity, and infrastructure purchases. Indiana's incentive to attract hyperscale and enterprise data center investment along I-65/I-70 corridors.

Max Benefit

100% sales tax exemption on qualified data center equipment and power (50+ year incentive period for qualifying investments of $750M+)

Eligibility

Data center operators investing $25M+ in qualified equipment. Tiered benefits based on investment level. Must create minimum employment.

Evansville anchors the Tri-State region (IN/IL/KY border). Healthcare is the largest employer, with manufacturing (Toyota supplier corridor) and logistics (Ohio River port, I-69 corridor) providing diversification. Steady but unspectacular growth.

Sources

Census ACS 5-Year 2023: Vanderburgh CountyBLS LAUS: Evansville MSAGrowth Alliance of Greater Evansville

Grant matches

Federal funding aligned to county levers

Best-Fit Incentive Programs

State programs matched to Vanderburgh County's industry mix, workforce needs, and recommended actions.

Skills Enhancement Fund (SEF)
TrainingUp to $5,000 per employee trained; no cap on total employees
90
  • +Matches manufacturing focus
  • +Matches life sciences focus
  • +Matches logistics focus

Recommended for: Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials, Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response, Targeted Poverty Reduction in Highest-Need Areas

Hoosier Business Investment (HBI) Tax Credit
Tax CreditUp to 10% of qualified capital investment, carried forward up to 9 years
80
  • +Matches manufacturing focus
  • +Matches life sciences focus
  • +Matches logistics focus

Recommended for: Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage, Reduce Healthcare & Social Concentration Risk, Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact

Headquarters Relocation Tax Credit
Tax CreditUp to 100% of withholdings on relocated HQ employees for up to 10 years
55
  • +Matches headquarters focus
  • +Funds 5 recommended actions
  • +Supports AI transition investment

Recommended for: Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage, Reduce Healthcare & Social Concentration Risk, Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact

Industrial Development Grant Fund (IDGF)
GrantNegotiated; typically $1M-$50M for projects creating 100+ jobs
45
  • +Funds 7 recommended actions
  • +County scale supports large-project grants
  • +Supports AI transition investment

Recommended for: Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response, Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage, Reduce Healthcare & Social Concentration Risk

Economic Development for a Growing Economy (EDGE)
Tax CreditUp to 100% of projected new payroll withholdings for up to 10 years
40
  • +Funds 5 recommended actions
  • +Supports AI transition investment

Recommended for: Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage, Reduce Healthcare & Social Concentration Risk, Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact

Target industries

Sectors prioritized by the county strategy

Sectors aligned with the county’s Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy and AI impact assessment.

1.Advanced Manufacturing & Automotive

AI mixed

Toyota Motor Manufacturing Indiana (TMMI) produces Highlander and Grand Highlander. 7,000+ employees. Anchor for regional manufacturing ecosystem and Tier 1/2 suppliers.

2.Pharmaceutical & Consumer Health

AI tailwind

Mead Johnson Nutrition (Reckitt) global HQ. Berry Global (packaging). Pharmaceutical and consumer goods manufacturing cluster.

3.Healthcare

AI tailwind

Deaconess Health System (largest employer), Ascension St. Vincent. Regional medical hub for tri-state area (IN/KY/IL). Growing medical device supplier base.

4.Energy & Utilities

AI mixed

CenterPoint Energy (formerly Vectren) HQ. Coal-to-renewables transition. Regional utility operations and engineering center.

5.Logistics & River Commerce

AI tailwind

Ohio River port. I-69 extension connecting to Indianapolis. Evansville Regional Airport. Tri-state distribution hub for southern Indiana.

Best-case opportunities

What this county wins in the preferred future

Sources

Government, academic, and live data feeds

Census QuickFacts: Vanderburgh CountyBEA: Evansville MSA GDPSouthwest Indiana Chamber
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