St. Joseph County

Northern Indiana, Indiana · 272K people · $15.0B GDP

Timeline
2026Present
NOW
EVENT HORIZON
2020202620302035204020452050
Northern Indiana

Future Path

Pick a future path. Every number on this page updates with the impacts and the ranked actions for that path.

Disruption Profile

Baseline + Probable

Extreme — Active disruption underway in key sectors

High — Median household income $52K (-20% vs state median) -- significantly below state average, limiting consumer spending and tax base.

High — AI Exposure Index: 60/100 -- moderate vulnerability to AI-driven workforce disruption.

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries

Minimal — Limited disruption signal

Minimal — Limited disruption signal

St. Joseph County vs Indiana Average

St. Joseph County exceeds Indiana average on 7/9 dimensions. Highest divergence: Social Trust (-25)

Click a dimension label to explore

St. Joseph Indiana US Avg

Projected impact · 2026

Stakes for St. Joseph County

Probable cone · 1.00x

With 130K jobs in St. Joseph County and AI exposure at 60/100, here is what the model projects through 2031 under the probable cone (default 5-year horizon — scrub the timeline to extend).

Model: at-risk = workforce × (AI exposure ÷ 100) × ((year − 2020) ÷ 10, capped 0-1) × cone multiplier. Each STEEPE-point improvement preserves ~1% of at-risk jobs. The same formula runs backwards (retrodiction) and forwards (projection), so scrubbing pre-2026 shows what the model says was already exposed by that year.

See per-dimension breakdown

How 12 actions distribute across 4 dimensions, plus near-term vs medium-term lists.

If St. Joseph County implements all 12 recommended actions, the model projects these dimensional improvements.

Economic Disruption
67+17 pts
Reduce Education (Notre Dame/IU South Bend) Concentration Risk /Mitigate GM/Samsung SDI $3B+ EV battery plant Concentration Risk /Battery Plant Supply Chain Capture
Education Value
60+17 pts
Pre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: Legacy manufacturing /Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline /Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Healthcare & Social /Sector-Pivot Scholarship Voucher
AI > AGI > ASI
65+13 pts
Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage /Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact /Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation
Social Trust
37+9 pts
Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response /Targeted Poverty Reduction in Highest-Need Areas
Near-term (1-3 yr)+51 pts

10 actions within local control

  • - Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
  • - Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage
  • - Reduce Education (Notre Dame/IU South Bend) Concentration Risk
  • - Targeted Poverty Reduction in Highest-Need Areas
  • - Mitigate GM/Samsung SDI $3B+ EV battery plant Concentration Risk
  • - Pre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: Legacy manufacturing
  • - Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline
  • - Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact
  • - Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Healthcare & Social
  • - Battery Plant Supply Chain Capture
Medium-term (3-7 yr)+5 pts

2 actions requiring partnerships or advocacy

  • - Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation
  • - Sector-Pivot Scholarship Voucher

Action Plan

Probable path

Top recommendations for St. Joseph County, ranked by estimated impact. 12 total · +56 pts combined.

Who Can Act

Of 12 recommended actions for St. Joseph County, 11 are within direct control. Tap a sphere to see the actions and what each one does.

Acting on the 11 local levers alone (+54 STEEPE pts) is the fastest path to shifting the probable→preferred future cone for this county.

Top Employers — St. Joseph County

The 5 largest employers shaping the local labor market. Tap any row for the public-data profile and AI-exposure assessment.

Combined headcount across profiled employers: 7.0K globally · 1 benefiting · 3 not yet profiled

Economic Development Authority

South Bend Regional Chamber of Commerce

Grow SJC Campaign

Website

Target Sectors

EV Battery ManufacturingDefense TechnologyUniversity InnovationRegional Hub Development

Active Programs

  • +GM/Samsung SDI infrastructure coordination
  • +IDEA Week innovation festival
  • +Talent connection programs
  • +Site selection

Recent Wins

GM/Samsung SDI $3B+ EV battery plant
$3B1,700 jobs2026
rScan HQ expansion
152 jobs2025

Supporting detail

Open any section to dig into the underlying data.

Layoff history (WARN)

Federal layoff filings on the timeline

WARN Act Notices (2020-2026)

Notices

3

Workers

225

Layoff Rate

0.17%

of total employment

2025

55

Workers Affected by Year

100
2020
0
2021
0
2022
70
2023
0
2024
55
2025
0
2026

By Sector

Defense/Auto Manufacturing
100 (44%)
Aerospace Manufacturing
70 (31%)
E-commerce/Logistics
55 (24%)

Recent Notices

Tire Rack (online retail)

South Bend · E-commerce/Logistics

Warehouse automation deployment, AI-driven inventory optimization

55

Mar 2025

Honeywell Aerospace South Bend

South Bend · Aerospace Manufacturing

Production line consolidation, component outsourcing

70

May 2023

AM General

Mishawaka · Defense/Auto Manufacturing

COVID-19 production pause, HMMWV line slowdown

100

Apr 2020

Source: Indiana DWD WARN. Federal WARN Act: 60-day notice for mass layoffs (50+ workers) at employers with 100+ employees.

Disruption scenarios

Exponential impact paths driven by the timeline

Exponential Impact Scenarios

Cross-signal alerts

When multiple risk signals converge on this county

Convergence Alerts

criticalAI-Economic Squeezestrength 58%
Economic 78/60AI 65/60Education 62/50

High economic disruption + rapid AI capability growth + education system stress creates a compound labor displacement risk. Industries face automation pressure while the workforce lacks retraining capacity.

Precedent: Rust Belt 2015-2020: manufacturing automation + trade disruption + inadequate workforce retraining led to persistent unemployment in affected counties.

St. Joseph County: 3 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.

Full economic profile

Demographics, employment, sectors, incentives

EVI: stableBASELINEMetro (RUCC 2)

Housing & Infrastructure

Median Home Value

$155K

Homeownership

65%

Median Rent

$875

Broadband Access

85.0%

Avg Commute

20 min

Labor Force Part.

63.0%

Very affordable housing stock. Renaissance District and downtown revitalization increasing values in core areas. Suburban Granger/Mishawaka markets stronger.

Employment by Sector

Education (Notre Dame/IU South Bend)18%
Healthcare & Social16%
Manufacturing (auto/defense)14%
Defense (AM General/Honeywell)8%
Retail Trade7%

Population & Talent

Population

272K

Change Since 2020

-0.3%

Median Age

36.5

Slight population decline offset by university enrollment stability. South Bend tech ecosystem (Aunalytics, Data Realty) beginning to attract/retain talent.

State Incentive Programs

Available incentives from IEDC for business attraction and expansion in St. Joseph County.

Economic Development for a Growing Economy (EDGE)

Tax Credit

Refundable income tax credits based on projected new payroll. Indiana's primary incentive for job creation. Credits calculated as a percentage of expected income tax withholdings from new employees over up to 10 years.

Max Benefit

Up to 100% of projected new payroll withholdings for up to 10 years

Eligibility

Companies creating new jobs in Indiana with above-average wages. Must demonstrate project would not occur in Indiana without incentive (but-for test).

Hoosier Business Investment (HBI) Tax Credit

Tax Credit

Non-refundable tax credit against Indiana income tax liability based on qualified capital investment. Supports companies making significant fixed-asset investments in Indiana facilities, equipment, and infrastructure.

Max Benefit

Up to 10% of qualified capital investment, carried forward up to 9 years

Eligibility

Companies making qualified capital investments of $1M+ in Indiana. Manufacturing, logistics, technology, and life sciences priorities.

Industrial Development Grant Fund (IDGF)

Grant

Performance-based grants for significant job creation and capital investment projects. Typically reserved for large-scale projects with transformative economic impact on a community.

Max Benefit

Negotiated; typically $1M-$50M for projects creating 100+ jobs

Eligibility

Major economic development projects creating substantial employment and capital investment. Competitive evaluation based on jobs, wages, investment, and community impact.

Skills Enhancement Fund (SEF)

Training

Grants to reimburse eligible training costs for new and existing employees. Supports workforce upskilling in advanced manufacturing, IT, and specialized technical skills.

Max Benefit

Up to $5,000 per employee trained; no cap on total employees

Eligibility

Indiana companies training employees in skills directly related to job functions. Priority for advanced manufacturing, IT, logistics, and life sciences sectors.

Headquarters Relocation Tax Credit

Tax Credit

Relocating a corporate headquarters to Indiana unlocks enhanced income tax credits. Designed for companies moving decision-making operations with high-wage executive and professional roles.

Max Benefit

Up to 100% of withholdings on relocated HQ employees for up to 10 years

Eligibility

Companies relocating corporate or divisional headquarters to Indiana. Must demonstrate significant executive/professional employment transfer.

Data Center Tax Exemptions

Exemption

Sales tax exemptions on qualifying data center equipment, electricity, and infrastructure purchases. Indiana's incentive to attract hyperscale and enterprise data center investment along I-65/I-70 corridors.

Max Benefit

100% sales tax exemption on qualified data center equipment and power (50+ year incentive period for qualifying investments of $750M+)

Eligibility

Data center operators investing $25M+ in qualified equipment. Tiered benefits based on investment level. Must create minimum employment.

Notre Dame and university ecosystem provide intellectual anchor. South Bend has undergone significant revitalization post-Studebaker era. Defense sector (AM General, Honeywell) adds stability. Data center corridor emerging along US-20.

Sources

Census ACS 5-Year 2023: St. Joseph CountyBLS LAUS: South Bend-Mishawaka MSASouth Bend-Elkhart Regional Partnership

Grant matches

Federal funding aligned to county levers

Best-Fit Incentive Programs

State programs matched to St. Joseph County's industry mix, workforce needs, and recommended actions.

Skills Enhancement Fund (SEF)
TrainingUp to $5,000 per employee trained; no cap on total employees
90
  • +Matches manufacturing focus
  • +Matches technology focus
  • +Matches life sciences focus

Recommended for: Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response, Targeted Poverty Reduction in Highest-Need Areas, Pre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: Legacy manufacturing

Hoosier Business Investment (HBI) Tax Credit
Tax CreditUp to 10% of qualified capital investment, carried forward up to 9 years
80
  • +Matches manufacturing focus
  • +Matches technology focus
  • +Matches life sciences focus

Recommended for: Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage, Reduce Education (Notre Dame/IU South Bend) Concentration Risk, Mitigate GM/Samsung SDI $3B+ EV battery plant Concentration Risk

Industrial Development Grant Fund (IDGF)
GrantNegotiated; typically $1M-$50M for projects creating 100+ jobs
45
  • +Funds 8 recommended actions
  • +County scale supports large-project grants
  • +Supports AI transition investment

Recommended for: Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response, Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage, Reduce Education (Notre Dame/IU South Bend) Concentration Risk

Data Center Tax Exemptions
Exemption100% sales tax exemption on qualified data center equipment and power (50+ year incentive period for qualifying investments of $750M+)
45
  • +Matches technology focus
  • +Funds 3 recommended actions

Recommended for: Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage, Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact, Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation

Economic Development for a Growing Economy (EDGE)
Tax CreditUp to 100% of projected new payroll withholdings for up to 10 years
40
  • +Funds 6 recommended actions
  • +Supports AI transition investment

Recommended for: Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage, Reduce Education (Notre Dame/IU South Bend) Concentration Risk, Mitigate GM/Samsung SDI $3B+ EV battery plant Concentration Risk

Target industries

Sectors prioritized by the county strategy

Sectors aligned with the county’s Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy and AI impact assessment.

1.Data Science & AI Research

AI tailwind

Notre Dame data science institute, IDEA Center. South Bend tech revival (Renaissance District). Growing startup ecosystem.

2.Advanced Manufacturing & EV

AI mixed

AM General (Humvee/JLTV manufacturer). Honeywell Aerospace. Transitioning from legacy auto to defense/EV manufacturing.

3.Healthcare & Education

AI tailwind

Beacon Health System, Notre Dame, IU South Bend. Education and healthcare as anchor institutions for regional economy.

Best-case opportunities

What this county wins in the preferred future

Sources

Government, academic, and live data feeds

Census QuickFacts: St. Joseph CountySouth Bend Regional Chamber
Back to Indiana