Back to St. Joseph County

St. Joseph County

Indiana | Economic Development Report

TerraMetrics

May 9, 2026

Population: 272KGDP: $15.0BAI Exposure: 60/100Establishments: 5,800Farms: 547

Total Employment

120.0K

Resilience Score

78/100

Diversification

103/100

Net Impact (Probable)

+1.2K

STEEPE Disruption Profile (Probable)

Economic Disruption
74.46
State: 62US: 74(+12.459999999999994 vs state)

Median household income $52K (-20% vs state median) -- significantly below state average, limiting consumer spending and tax base.

Unemployment 4.5% with 130,000 total employed. Poverty rate 16%.

AI > AGI > ASI
71
State: 55US: 94(+16 vs state)

AI Exposure Index: 60/100 -- moderate vulnerability to AI-driven workforce disruption.

Highest risk sector: Legacy manufacturing (supplier base)

Political Risk
68.84
State: 58US: 52(+10.840000000000003 vs state)

Metro jurisdiction -- larger government apparatus with more regulatory complexity.

Economic Vitality: stable -- adequate governance but limited capacity for bold policy moves.

Education Value
55
State: 48US: 72(+7 vs state)

30% bachelor's+ attainment -- above-average workforce readiness for knowledge-economy transition.

89% high school+ completion rate -- adequate base but gaps remain in advanced skills.

Ecological Stress
41
State: 45US: 38(-4 vs state)

Moderate ecological risk profile -- no extreme climate events but regional exposure persists.

Housing median value $155K -- lower property values reduce but don't eliminate climate exposure.

Bitcoin Adoption
36
State: 30US: 72(+6 vs state)

No significant financial sector employment -- BTC adoption impact is indirect through consumer behavior and investment flows.

Median income $52K -- moderate crypto adoption potential aligned with national trends.

Quantum Readiness
23
State: 22US: 82(+1 vs state)

Defense/aerospace sector (14%) has direct exposure to quantum computing through encryption, logistics optimization, and materials science.

Research institutions (University of Notre Dame) provide local quantum/STEM workforce pipeline, though direct quantum compute facilities are rare outside major metro areas.

CBDC Rollout
16
State: 15US: 12(+1 vs state)

16% poverty rate means a larger unbanked/underbanked population. CBDC could improve financial access -- or create new surveillance concerns.

Retail/hospitality sector (7%) would be early adopters of CBDC point-of-sale infrastructure.

Social Trust
10.92
State: 40US: 55(-29.08 vs state)

16% poverty rate strains community cohesion and institutional trust.

Population stable (-0.3% since 2020) -- community base is steady.

Industry Sectors (CBP)

Healthcare & Social Assistance
18.9K
Retail Trade
15.6K
Manufacturing
13.6K
Accommodation & Food Services
10.7K
Professional & Technical Services
5.0K
Construction
4.8K
Transportation & Warehousing
4.6K
Information
2.9K

Signature: Higher Education & Healthcare - University of Notre Dame (6,000+ employees), Indiana University South Bend. Beacon Health System, Memorial Hospital.

AI Vulnerability

  • Legacy manufacturing (supplier base)
  • Retail (University Park Mall area)
  • Government services (county administration)

AI Benefiting

  • Notre Dame AI/data science research
  • Defense manufacturing (AM General modernization)
  • Smart city technology (South Bend infrastructure)

Target Industries

1. Data Science & AI Research- Notre Dame data science institute, IDEA Center. South Bend tech revival (Renaiss
2. Advanced Manufacturing & EV- AM General (Humvee/JLTV manufacturer). Honeywell Aerospace. Transitioning from l
3. Healthcare & Education- Beacon Health System, Notre Dame, IU South Bend. Education and healthcare as anc

Agricultural Economy (USDA 2022)

Farms: 547
Farmland: 153K ac
Market Value: $162M
Net Income: $45M

Top Commodities:

Corn for grain$72M
Soybeans$58M
Wheat$9M
Dairy (milk from cows)$12M
Crops 80%Livestock 20%

Cities & Towns (ACS 2024)

South Bend103K pop | $56K HHI
Manufacturing (15.8%)
Healthcare & Social Assistance (13.7%)
Educational Services (13.5%)

Sector Impact Analysis (Probable Future)

Healthcare & Social Assistance
+2.4K
Retail Trade
-1,295
Accommodation & Food Services
-814
Educational Services
+774
Manufacturing
-643
Information
+458
Professional & Technical Services
+395
Transportation & Warehousing
-392

Net employment change by sector under probable futures scenario. Green = growth, Red = displacement risk.

Ranked Opportunities

1. Healthcare Workforce Pipeline

81/100

Address healthcare worker shortages by building accelerated training programs, especially for AI-augmented care roles.

1-2 yearsPotential: 946 new jobs, $52.5M annual payroll
  • -Fund nursing and allied health accelerated degree programs
  • -Create AI-health technician certification (diagnostic AI, robotic surgery assist)
  • -Develop retention programs: housing assistance, student loan repayment

2. AI Healthcare Innovation Cluster

74/100

Leverage existing healthcare employment density to attract AI health startups, clinical trial operations, and telehealth infrastructure.

2-5 yearsPotential: 946 new jobs, $52.5M annual payroll
  • -Recruit AI-health startups with co-location incentives near hospital systems
  • -Establish clinical data partnerships between hospitals and AI researchers
  • -Create telehealth infrastructure fund for rural patient access expansion

3. Advanced Manufacturing Automation Hub

65/100

Attract robotics and AI-augmented manufacturing companies to leverage existing manufacturing workforce and retrain for higher-wage automation roles.

2-5 yearsPotential: 678 new jobs, $40.9M annual payroll
  • -Partner with local community colleges for robotics/PLC certification programs
  • -Create tax incentives for manufacturers investing in automation upgrades
  • -Establish a manufacturing innovation center with shared robotics equipment

4. Reshoring & Nearshoring Attraction

65/100

Position existing manufacturing infrastructure to capture companies returning production from overseas, driven by supply chain security concerns.

1-2 yearsPotential: 678 new jobs, $40.9M annual payroll
  • -Identify vacant or underutilized industrial sites suitable for rapid conversion
  • -Develop fast-track permitting for reshoring manufacturers
  • -Create workforce pipeline agreements with regional training programs

Under the probable future, this county's strongest opportunity is healthcare workforce pipeline (feasibility: 81/100). The economic outlook is net positive with 1,231 potential new positions. Additionally, ai healthcare innovation cluster scores 74/100 feasibility.

Key Traits

University of Notre Dame anchor institutionSouth Bend Renaissance District (tech revival)AM General: Humvee/JLTV defense manufacturingPost-industrial recovery story (Studebaker era to present)IDEA Center (Notre Dame startup incubator)Smart city initiatives (data-driven governance)

Major Employers

University of Notre Dame (education/research)

Beacon Health System (healthcare)

AM General (defense vehicles)

Honeywell Aerospace (turbine engines)

IU Health South Bend

WARN Act Notices (Recent)

CompanyDateWorkersType
Tire Rack (online retail)2025-03-0155layoff
Honeywell Aerospace South Bend2023-05-0170layoff
AM General2020-04-15100layoff

Indiana Economic Incentives

Economic Development for a Growing Economy (EDGE)

Refundable income tax credits based on projected new payroll. Indiana's primary incentive for job creation. Credits calc...

tax_credit

Hoosier Business Investment (HBI) Tax Credit

Non-refundable tax credit against Indiana income tax liability based on qualified capital investment. Supports companies...

tax_credit

Industrial Development Grant Fund (IDGF)

Performance-based grants for significant job creation and capital investment projects. Typically reserved for large-scal...

grant

Skills Enhancement Fund (SEF)

Grants to reimburse eligible training costs for new and existing employees. Supports workforce upskilling in advanced ma...

training

Headquarters Relocation Tax Credit

Relocating a corporate headquarters to Indiana unlocks enhanced income tax credits. Designed for companies moving decisi...

tax_credit

Data Center Tax Exemptions

Sales tax exemptions on qualifying data center equipment, electricity, and infrastructure purchases. Indiana's incentive...

exemption

South Bend Regional Chamber of CommerceGrow SJC Campaign

Target Sectors

EV Battery ManufacturingDefense TechnologyUniversity InnovationRegional Hub Development

Active Programs

  • GM/Samsung SDI infrastructure coordination
  • IDEA Week innovation festival
  • Talent connection programs
  • Site selection

Recent Wins

NameInvestmentJobsYear
GM/Samsung SDI $3B+ EV battery plant$3B1,7002026
rScan HQ expansion-1522025

Preferred Future Actions

PriorityDimensionActionImpactControl
criticalSocial TrustPre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response+4local
highAI > AGI > ASIConvert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage+6local
highEconomic DisruptionReduce Education (Notre Dame/IU South Bend) Concentration Risk+5local
highSocial TrustTargeted Poverty Reduction in Highest-Need Areas+5local
highEconomic DisruptionMitigate GM/Samsung SDI $3B+ EV battery plant Concentration Risk+5local
highEducation ValuePre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: Legacy manufacturing+5local
highEducation ValueSector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline+5local
highEducation ValueRegistered Apprenticeship Expansion: Healthcare & Social+4local
highAI > AGI > ASIUniversal Broadband for AI Economy Participation+2federal
mediumEducation ValueSector-Pivot Scholarship Voucher+3local
highEconomic DisruptionBattery Plant Supply Chain Capture+7local

Projected Impact Summary

Economic Disruption
67 + 17 = 84
Education Value
60 + 17 = 77
Social Trust
37 + 9 = 46
AI > AGI > ASI
65 + 8 = 73

Total Impact

+51 pts

11 actions

Local Control

91%

10 of 11 actions

Critical Actions

1

highest priority

Impact estimates are modeled projections based on STEEPE dimension sensitivity analysis. Actual outcomes depend on implementation quality, timing, and external conditions.

Data Sources

Census CBP 2022, USDA Census of Agriculture 2022, Census ACS 2024, BLS QCEW, BEA County GDP, WARN Act Notices, TerraMetrics STEEPE Engine. Census QuickFacts: St. Joseph County. South Bend Regional Chamber.

Definitions

STEEPE Framework: A multi-dimensional disruption assessment covering Social, Technology (AI, Blockchain, CBDC, Quantum), Ecological, Economic, Political, and Education. Each dimension is scored 0-100, where higher values indicate greater disruption intensity. Scores shown in this report reflect the Probable scenario projection.

Resilience Score (0-100): How well-positioned a county is to absorb economic disruption. Calculated from economic diversification (40%), opportunity-to-threat ratio (35%), and average sector wage levels (25%). Higher scores indicate greater capacity to weather change.

Diversification Score (0-100): Economic diversity across industry sectors, based on the inverted Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). A score of 100 indicates a perfectly diversified economy; lower scores indicate concentration in fewer sectors, increasing vulnerability to sector-specific shocks.

AI Exposure Score (0-100): Degree of exposure to AI-driven disruption based on knowledge worker concentration, tech company density, and manufacturing automation exposure. Higher scores indicate greater exposure, meaning both higher risk of displacement and higher potential for AI-driven growth.

Futures Cone (Probable / Possible / Preferable): Based on the Voros (2003) futures cone methodology. Probable represents where current trends lead (highest confidence). Possible covers what could happen across a wider range of conditions. Preferable describes the abundant future that proactive policy and investment can build toward.