Elkhart County

Northern Indiana, Indiana · 210K people · $15.5B GDP

Timeline
2026Present
NOW
EVENT HORIZON
2020202620302035204020452050
Northern Indiana

Future Path

Pick a future path. Every number on this page updates with the impacts and the ranked actions for that path.

Disruption Profile

Baseline + Probable

Extreme — Median household income $58K (-10.8% vs state median) -- significantly below state average, limiting consumer spending and tax base.

High — Active disruption underway in key sectors

Moderate — AI Exposure Index: 78/100 -- high vulnerability to AI-driven workforce disruption.

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries

Minimal — Limited disruption signal

Minimal — Limited disruption signal

Elkhart County vs Indiana Average

Elkhart County exceeds Indiana average on 7/9 dimensions. Highest divergence: Social Trust (-24)

Click a dimension label to explore

Elkhart Indiana US Avg

Projected impact · 2026

Stakes for Elkhart County

Probable cone · 1.00x

With 112K jobs in Elkhart County and AI exposure at 78/100, here is what the model projects through 2031 under the probable cone (default 5-year horizon — scrub the timeline to extend).

Model: at-risk = workforce × (AI exposure ÷ 100) × ((year − 2020) ÷ 10, capped 0-1) × cone multiplier. Each STEEPE-point improvement preserves ~1% of at-risk jobs. The same formula runs backwards (retrodiction) and forwards (projection), so scrubbing pre-2026 shows what the model says was already exposed by that year.

See per-dimension breakdown

How 11 actions distribute across 4 dimensions, plus near-term vs medium-term lists.

If Elkhart County implements all 11 recommended actions, the model projects these dimensional improvements.

Education Value
40+23 pts
Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials /Pre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: RV assembly /Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline /Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Manufacturing (RV/marine) /Sector-Pivot Scholarship Voucher
Economic Disruption
77+16 pts
Reduce Manufacturing (RV/marine) Concentration Risk /RV-to-EV Manufacturing Transition Plan
AI > AGI > ASI
50+14 pts
Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage /Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact /Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation
Social Trust
43+4 pts
Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
Near-term (1-3 yr)+43 pts

8 actions within local control

  • - Reduce Manufacturing (RV/marine) Concentration Risk
  • - Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials
  • - Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
  • - Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage
  • - Pre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: RV assembly
  • - Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline
  • - Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact
  • - Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Manufacturing (RV/marine)
Medium-term (3-7 yr)+14 pts

3 actions requiring partnerships or advocacy

  • - Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation
  • - Sector-Pivot Scholarship Voucher
  • - RV-to-EV Manufacturing Transition Plan

Action Plan

Probable path

Top recommendations for Elkhart County, ranked by estimated impact. 11 total · +57 pts combined.

Who Can Act

Of 11 recommended actions for Elkhart County, 9 are within direct control. Tap a sphere to see the actions and what each one does.

Acting on the 9 local levers alone (+46 STEEPE pts) is the fastest path to shifting the probable→preferred future cone for this county.

Top Employers — Elkhart County

The 5 largest employers shaping the local labor market. Tap any row for the public-data profile and AI-exposure assessment.

Combined headcount across profiled employers: 37K globally · 3 not yet profiled

Economic Development Authority

Economic Development Corporation of Elkhart County

Website

Target Sectors

Advanced ManufacturingRV & Manufactured HousingMusical InstrumentsBiomedicalMobility/Automotive

Active Programs

  • +Site selection + Opportunity Zones
  • +SlateUp manufacturing talent marketplace (Feb 2026)
  • +Small business grants
  • +Ivy Tech/WorkOne coordination

Recent Wins

Ember RV new entrant
2025
MJB Wood Group Bristol expansion
2025
B-D Industries state grant
2024

Supporting detail

Open any section to dig into the underlying data.

Layoff history (WARN)

Federal layoff filings on the timeline

WARN Act Notices (2020-2026)

Notices

7

Workers

1,600

Layoff Rate

1.43%

of total employment

2025

180

Workers Affected by Year

950
2020
0
2021
350
2022
120
2023
0
2024
180
2025
0
2026

By Sector

RV Manufacturing
1300 (81%)
Specialty Vehicle Manufacturing
150 (9%)
RV Components Manufacturing
150 (9%)

Recent Notices

Forest River (Berkshire)

Elkhart · RV Manufacturing

Steel/aluminum tariff cost pass-through, demand softness

180

Apr 2025

Keystone RV (Thor)

Goshen · RV Manufacturing

Interest rate impact on RV financing, production cuts

120

Feb 2023

REV Group

Elkhart · Specialty Vehicle Manufacturing

Demand correction, production line consolidation

150

Nov 2022

Thor Industries

Elkhart · RV Manufacturing

Post-pandemic demand normalization, dealer inventory correction

200

Oct 2022

Patrick Industries

Elkhart · RV Components Manufacturing

COVID-19 demand collapse, supplier shutdown

150

Apr 2020

Forest River (Berkshire)

Elkhart · RV Manufacturing

COVID-19 production shutdown

300

Mar 2020

Source: Indiana DWD WARN. Federal WARN Act: 60-day notice for mass layoffs (50+ workers) at employers with 100+ employees.

Disruption scenarios

Exponential impact paths driven by the timeline

Exponential Impact Scenarios

Cross-signal alerts

When multiple risk signals converge on this county

Full economic profile

Demographics, employment, sectors, incentives

EVI: transitionalBASELINEMetro (RUCC 2)

Housing & Infrastructure

Median Home Value

$175K

Homeownership

72%

Median Rent

$850

Broadband Access

78.0%

Avg Commute

20 min

Labor Force Part.

67.5%

Very affordable housing market. Values fluctuate with RV industry cycles. Good homeownership rates driven by manufacturing wages.

Employment by Sector

Manufacturing (RV/marine)42%
Healthcare & Social10%
Retail Trade8%
Transportation/Warehousing6%
Accommodation/Food5%

Population & Talent

Population

210K

Change Since 2020

+0.5%

Median Age

36

Population stable. Large Amish/Mennonite community. Hispanic/Latino workforce growing in manufacturing sector.

State Incentive Programs

Available incentives from IEDC for business attraction and expansion in Elkhart County.

Economic Development for a Growing Economy (EDGE)

Tax Credit

Refundable income tax credits based on projected new payroll. Indiana's primary incentive for job creation. Credits calculated as a percentage of expected income tax withholdings from new employees over up to 10 years.

Max Benefit

Up to 100% of projected new payroll withholdings for up to 10 years

Eligibility

Companies creating new jobs in Indiana with above-average wages. Must demonstrate project would not occur in Indiana without incentive (but-for test).

Hoosier Business Investment (HBI) Tax Credit

Tax Credit

Non-refundable tax credit against Indiana income tax liability based on qualified capital investment. Supports companies making significant fixed-asset investments in Indiana facilities, equipment, and infrastructure.

Max Benefit

Up to 10% of qualified capital investment, carried forward up to 9 years

Eligibility

Companies making qualified capital investments of $1M+ in Indiana. Manufacturing, logistics, technology, and life sciences priorities.

Industrial Development Grant Fund (IDGF)

Grant

Performance-based grants for significant job creation and capital investment projects. Typically reserved for large-scale projects with transformative economic impact on a community.

Max Benefit

Negotiated; typically $1M-$50M for projects creating 100+ jobs

Eligibility

Major economic development projects creating substantial employment and capital investment. Competitive evaluation based on jobs, wages, investment, and community impact.

Skills Enhancement Fund (SEF)

Training

Grants to reimburse eligible training costs for new and existing employees. Supports workforce upskilling in advanced manufacturing, IT, and specialized technical skills.

Max Benefit

Up to $5,000 per employee trained; no cap on total employees

Eligibility

Indiana companies training employees in skills directly related to job functions. Priority for advanced manufacturing, IT, logistics, and life sciences sectors.

Headquarters Relocation Tax Credit

Tax Credit

Relocating a corporate headquarters to Indiana unlocks enhanced income tax credits. Designed for companies moving decision-making operations with high-wage executive and professional roles.

Max Benefit

Up to 100% of withholdings on relocated HQ employees for up to 10 years

Eligibility

Companies relocating corporate or divisional headquarters to Indiana. Must demonstrate significant executive/professional employment transfer.

Data Center Tax Exemptions

Exemption

Sales tax exemptions on qualifying data center equipment, electricity, and infrastructure purchases. Indiana's incentive to attract hyperscale and enterprise data center investment along I-65/I-70 corridors.

Max Benefit

100% sales tax exemption on qualified data center equipment and power (50+ year incentive period for qualifying investments of $750M+)

Eligibility

Data center operators investing $25M+ in qualified equipment. Tiered benefits based on investment level. Must create minimum employment.

RV Capital of the World with extreme cyclical exposure. Manufacturing accounts for 42% of employment, dominated by recreational vehicle production. Low educational attainment limits workforce adaptability. Industry concentration creates boom-bust vulnerability.

Sources

Census ACS 5-Year 2023: Elkhart CountyBLS LAUS: Elkhart-Goshen MSAEconomic Development Corp of Elkhart County

Grant matches

Federal funding aligned to county levers

Best-Fit Incentive Programs

State programs matched to Elkhart County's industry mix, workforce needs, and recommended actions.

Skills Enhancement Fund (SEF)
TrainingUp to $5,000 per employee trained; no cap on total employees
65
  • +Matches manufacturing focus
  • +Funds 6 recommended actions
  • +Workforce training applicable at any scale

Recommended for: Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials, Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response, Pre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: RV assembly

Hoosier Business Investment (HBI) Tax Credit
Tax CreditUp to 10% of qualified capital investment, carried forward up to 9 years
55
  • +Matches manufacturing focus
  • +Funds 5 recommended actions
  • +Supports AI transition investment

Recommended for: Reduce Manufacturing (RV/marine) Concentration Risk, Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage, Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact

Industrial Development Grant Fund (IDGF)
GrantNegotiated; typically $1M-$50M for projects creating 100+ jobs
45
  • +Funds 6 recommended actions
  • +County scale supports large-project grants
  • +Supports AI transition investment

Recommended for: Reduce Manufacturing (RV/marine) Concentration Risk, Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response, Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage

Economic Development for a Growing Economy (EDGE)
Tax CreditUp to 100% of projected new payroll withholdings for up to 10 years
40
  • +Funds 5 recommended actions
  • +Supports AI transition investment

Recommended for: Reduce Manufacturing (RV/marine) Concentration Risk, Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage, Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact

Headquarters Relocation Tax Credit
Tax CreditUp to 100% of withholdings on relocated HQ employees for up to 10 years
40
  • +Funds 5 recommended actions
  • +Supports AI transition investment

Recommended for: Reduce Manufacturing (RV/marine) Concentration Risk, Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage, Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact

Target industries

Sectors prioritized by the county strategy

Sectors aligned with the county’s Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy and AI impact assessment.

1.RV & Specialty Vehicle Manufacturing

AI headwind

80% of US RVs manufactured here. Thor Industries HQ, REV Group, Forest River (Berkshire Hathaway). $50B+ industry.

2.Advanced Materials & Composites

AI mixed

RV supply chain drives materials innovation. Fiberglass, lightweight composites, modular construction techniques transferable to housing/defense.

3.EV Conversion & Electrification

AI tailwind

RV manufacturers exploring electric/hybrid platforms. Lightning eMotors, REV Group EV buses. Existing manufacturing workforce adaptable to EV.

Best-case opportunities

What this county wins in the preferred future

Sources

Government, academic, and live data feeds

Census QuickFacts: Elkhart CountyEconomic Development Corporation of Elkhart County
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