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Elkhart County

Indiana | Economic Development Report

TerraMetrics

May 9, 2026

Population: 210KGDP: $15.5BAI Exposure: 78/100Establishments: 5,200Farms: 1,809

Total Employment

135.0K

Resilience Score

58/100

Diversification

70/100

Net Impact (Probable)

-3,444

STEEPE Disruption Profile (Probable)

Economic Disruption
84.46
State: 62US: 74(+22.459999999999994 vs state)

Median household income $58K (-10.8% vs state median) -- significantly below state average, limiting consumer spending and tax base.

Unemployment 3.2% with 112,000 total employed. Poverty rate 12%.

Political Risk
68.84
State: 58US: 52(+10.840000000000003 vs state)

Metro jurisdiction -- larger government apparatus with more regulatory complexity.

Economic Vitality: transitional -- governance under economic transition pressure, policy uncertainty elevated.

AI > AGI > ASI
56
State: 55US: 94(+1 vs state)

AI Exposure Index: 78/100 -- high vulnerability to AI-driven workforce disruption.

Highest risk sector: RV assembly (routine manufacturing, automation pressure)

Ecological Stress
41
State: 45US: 38(-4 vs state)

Moderate ecological risk profile -- no extreme climate events but regional exposure persists.

Agriculture/food sector (5% of employment) directly exposed to climate variability and extreme weather.

Bitcoin Adoption
36
State: 30US: 72(+6 vs state)

No significant financial sector employment -- BTC adoption impact is indirect through consumer behavior and investment flows.

Median income $58K -- moderate crypto adoption potential aligned with national trends.

Education Value
35
State: 48US: 72(-13 vs state)

18% bachelor's+ attainment is 15 points below the national average (33%) -- severely limits knowledge-economy competitiveness.

82% high school+ completion rate -- significant portion of workforce lacks basic credentials.

Quantum Readiness
23
State: 22US: 82(+1 vs state)

Research institutions (Ivy Tech Elkhart) provide local quantum/STEM workforce pipeline, though direct quantum compute facilities are rare outside major metro areas.

18% bachelor's+ rate limits local STEM talent pool -- PQC migration will depend on external expertise.

Social Trust
16.92
State: 40US: 55(-23.08 vs state)

12% poverty rate creates moderate social service pressure.

Population stable (+0.5% since 2020) -- community base is steady.

CBDC Rollout
16
State: 15US: 12(+1 vs state)

Lower poverty (12%) means most residents already have bank access. CBDC impact would be through payment efficiency, not financial inclusion.

Retail/hospitality sector (8%) would be early adopters of CBDC point-of-sale infrastructure.

Industry Sectors (CBP)

Manufacturing
80.5K
Healthcare & Social Assistance
10.9K
Retail Trade
10.3K
Accommodation & Food Services
6.6K
Construction
4.2K
Transportation & Warehousing
3.2K
Professional & Technical Services
1.9K
Wholesale Trade
4.5K

Signature: RV & Transportation Equipment Manufacturing - 85% of North American RVs built here. Thor Industries, Forest River (Berkshire Hathaway), Keystone. 39,919 in RV body/trailer mfg alone (NAICS 3362).

AI Vulnerability

  • RV assembly (routine manufacturing, automation pressure)
  • RV component suppliers (consolidation, offshoring risk)
  • Retail and hospitality (dependent on RV industry health)

AI Benefiting

  • RV design and engineering (AI-assisted design tools)
  • EV integration for recreational vehicles
  • Modular/prefab construction (transferable RV skills)

Target Industries

1. RV & Specialty Vehicle Manufacturing- 80% of US RVs manufactured here. Thor Industries HQ, REV Group, Forest River (Be
2. Advanced Materials & Composites- RV supply chain drives materials innovation. Fiberglass, lightweight composites,
3. EV Conversion & Electrification- RV manufacturers exploring electric/hybrid platforms. Lightning eMotors, REV Gro

Agricultural Economy (USDA 2022)

Farms: 1,809
Farmland: 195K ac
Market Value: $498M
Net Income: $178M

Top Commodities:

Dairy (milk from cows)$145M
Corn for grain$85M
Soybeans$72M
Poultry & eggs$68M
Crops 40%Livestock 60%

Cities & Towns (ACS 2024)

Elkhart54K pop | $51K HHI
Manufacturing (36.4%)
Healthcare & Social Assistance (11.1%)
Accommodation & Food Services (9.3%)
Goshen35K pop | $55K HHI
Manufacturing (32.1%)
Healthcare & Social Assistance (12.8%)
Retail Trade (10.5%)

Sector Impact Analysis (Probable Future)

Manufacturing
-3,815
Healthcare & Social Assistance
+1.4K
Retail Trade
-849
Accommodation & Food Services
-502
Construction
+326
Transportation & Warehousing
-273
Professional & Technical Services
+151
Educational Services
+143

Net employment change by sector under probable futures scenario. Green = growth, Red = displacement risk.

Ranked Opportunities

1. Advanced Manufacturing Automation Hub

76/100

Attract robotics and AI-augmented manufacturing companies to leverage existing manufacturing workforce and retrain for higher-wage automation roles.

2-5 yearsPotential: 4,025 new jobs, $248M annual payroll
  • -Partner with local community colleges for robotics/PLC certification programs
  • -Create tax incentives for manufacturers investing in automation upgrades
  • -Establish a manufacturing innovation center with shared robotics equipment

2. Reshoring & Nearshoring Attraction

75/100

Position existing manufacturing infrastructure to capture companies returning production from overseas, driven by supply chain security concerns.

1-2 yearsPotential: 4,025 new jobs, $248M annual payroll
  • -Identify vacant or underutilized industrial sites suitable for rapid conversion
  • -Develop fast-track permitting for reshoring manufacturers
  • -Create workforce pipeline agreements with regional training programs

3. Precision Agriculture & AgTech Corridor

71/100

Combine agricultural land base with AI/tech capabilities to become a precision agriculture testing and deployment hub.

2-5 yearsModerate economic impact potential
  • -Recruit AgTech startups (drone monitoring, AI crop analytics, autonomous equipment)
  • -Create farm-to-tech apprenticeship programs for agricultural workers
  • -Establish precision agriculture demonstration farms with university partners

4. Healthcare Workforce Pipeline

70/100

Address healthcare worker shortages by building accelerated training programs, especially for AI-augmented care roles.

1-2 yearsPotential: 544 new jobs, $27.8M annual payroll
  • -Fund nursing and allied health accelerated degree programs
  • -Create AI-health technician certification (diagnostic AI, robotic surgery assist)
  • -Develop retention programs: housing assistance, student loan repayment

Under the probable future, this county's strongest opportunity is advanced manufacturing automation hub (feasibility: 76/100). While 3,444 jobs face displacement risk, proactive investment in advanced manufacturing automation hub can offset this with potential: 4,025 new jobs, $248m annual payroll. Additionally, reshoring & nearshoring attraction scores 75/100 feasibility.

Key Traits

RV Capital of the World (80% of US production)Thor Industries HQ ($15B+ revenue)Forest River (Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary)Strong Amish/Mennonite community and work ethicExtreme cyclical exposure (RV demand tracks consumer confidence)Lowest unemployment in Indiana when economy is strongManufacturing skills transferable to modular housing/EV

Major Employers

Thor Industries (RV manufacturing, HQ)

Forest River (Berkshire Hathaway, RV)

REV Group (specialty vehicles)

Patrick Industries (building products)

Lippert Components (RV components)

WARN Act Notices (Recent)

CompanyDateWorkersType
Forest River (Berkshire)2025-04-15180layoff
Keystone RV (Thor)2023-02-01120layoff
REV Group2022-11-15150layoff
Thor Industries2022-10-01200layoff
Patrick Industries2020-04-01150layoff
Forest River (Berkshire)2020-03-27300layoff
Thor Industries2020-03-25500layoff

Indiana Economic Incentives

Economic Development for a Growing Economy (EDGE)

Refundable income tax credits based on projected new payroll. Indiana's primary incentive for job creation. Credits calc...

tax_credit

Hoosier Business Investment (HBI) Tax Credit

Non-refundable tax credit against Indiana income tax liability based on qualified capital investment. Supports companies...

tax_credit

Industrial Development Grant Fund (IDGF)

Performance-based grants for significant job creation and capital investment projects. Typically reserved for large-scal...

grant

Skills Enhancement Fund (SEF)

Grants to reimburse eligible training costs for new and existing employees. Supports workforce upskilling in advanced ma...

training

Headquarters Relocation Tax Credit

Relocating a corporate headquarters to Indiana unlocks enhanced income tax credits. Designed for companies moving decisi...

tax_credit

Data Center Tax Exemptions

Sales tax exemptions on qualifying data center equipment, electricity, and infrastructure purchases. Indiana's incentive...

exemption

Economic Development Corporation of Elkhart County

Target Sectors

Advanced ManufacturingRV & Manufactured HousingMusical InstrumentsBiomedicalMobility/Automotive

Active Programs

  • Site selection + Opportunity Zones
  • SlateUp manufacturing talent marketplace (Feb 2026)
  • Small business grants
  • Ivy Tech/WorkOne coordination

Recent Wins

NameInvestmentJobsYear
Ember RV new entrant--2025
MJB Wood Group Bristol expansion--2025
B-D Industries state grant--2024

Preferred Future Actions

PriorityDimensionActionImpactControl
criticalEconomic DisruptionReduce Manufacturing (RV/marine) Concentration Risk+8local
criticalEducation ValueClose the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials+6local
criticalSocial TrustPre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response+4local
highAI > AGI > ASIConvert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage+6local
highEducation ValuePre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: RV assembly+5local
highEducation ValueSector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline+5local
highEducation ValueRegistered Apprenticeship Expansion: Manufacturing (RV/marine)+4local
highAI > AGI > ASIUniversal Broadband for AI Economy Participation+3federal
mediumEducation ValueSector-Pivot Scholarship Voucher+3local
criticalEconomic DisruptionRV-to-EV Manufacturing Transition Plan+8market

Projected Impact Summary

Education Value
40 + 23 = 63
Economic Disruption
77 + 16 = 93
AI > AGI > ASI
50 + 9 = 59
Social Trust
43 + 4 = 47

Total Impact

+52 pts

10 actions

Local Control

80%

8 of 10 actions

Critical Actions

4

highest priority

Impact estimates are modeled projections based on STEEPE dimension sensitivity analysis. Actual outcomes depend on implementation quality, timing, and external conditions.

Data Sources

Census CBP 2022, USDA Census of Agriculture 2022, Census ACS 2024, BLS QCEW, BEA County GDP, WARN Act Notices, TerraMetrics STEEPE Engine. Census QuickFacts: Elkhart County. Economic Development Corporation of Elkhart County.

Definitions

STEEPE Framework: A multi-dimensional disruption assessment covering Social, Technology (AI, Blockchain, CBDC, Quantum), Ecological, Economic, Political, and Education. Each dimension is scored 0-100, where higher values indicate greater disruption intensity. Scores shown in this report reflect the Probable scenario projection.

Resilience Score (0-100): How well-positioned a county is to absorb economic disruption. Calculated from economic diversification (40%), opportunity-to-threat ratio (35%), and average sector wage levels (25%). Higher scores indicate greater capacity to weather change.

Diversification Score (0-100): Economic diversity across industry sectors, based on the inverted Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). A score of 100 indicates a perfectly diversified economy; lower scores indicate concentration in fewer sectors, increasing vulnerability to sector-specific shocks.

AI Exposure Score (0-100): Degree of exposure to AI-driven disruption based on knowledge worker concentration, tech company density, and manufacturing automation exposure. Higher scores indicate greater exposure, meaning both higher risk of displacement and higher potential for AI-driven growth.

Futures Cone (Probable / Possible / Preferable): Based on the Voros (2003) futures cone methodology. Probable represents where current trends lead (highest confidence). Possible covers what could happen across a wider range of conditions. Preferable describes the abundant future that proactive policy and investment can build toward.