Allen County

Northeast Indiana, Indiana · 385K people · $24.0B GDP

Timeline
2026Present
NOW
EVENT HORIZON
2020202620302035204020452050
Northeast Indiana

Future Path

Pick a future path. Every number on this page updates with the impacts and the ranked actions for that path.

Disruption Profile

Baseline + Probable

Extreme — Active disruption underway in key sectors

High — Median household income $58K (-10.8% vs state median) -- significantly below state average, limiting consumer spending and tax base.

High — AI Exposure Index: 72/100 -- high vulnerability to AI-driven workforce disruption.

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries

Minimal — Limited disruption signal

Minimal — Limited disruption signal

Allen County vs Indiana Average

Allen County exceeds Indiana average on 7/9 dimensions. Highest divergence: Social Trust (-25)

Click a dimension label to explore

Allen Indiana US Avg

Projected impact · 2026

Stakes for Allen County

Probable cone · 1.00x

With 195K jobs in Allen County and AI exposure at 72/100, here is what the model projects through 2031 under the probable cone (default 5-year horizon — scrub the timeline to extend).

Model: at-risk = workforce × (AI exposure ÷ 100) × ((year − 2020) ÷ 10, capped 0-1) × cone multiplier. Each STEEPE-point improvement preserves ~1% of at-risk jobs. The same formula runs backwards (retrodiction) and forwards (projection), so scrubbing pre-2026 shows what the model says was already exposed by that year.

See per-dimension breakdown

How 11 actions distribute across 4 dimensions, plus near-term vs medium-term lists.

If Allen County implements all 11 recommended actions, the model projects these dimensional improvements.

Education Value
51+23 pts
Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials /Pre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: Auto assembly /Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline /Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Manufacturing (auto/defense) /Sector-Pivot Scholarship Voucher
AI > AGI > ASI
60+19 pts
Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage /Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact /Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation /Industry 4.0 Accelerator at Electric Works
Economic Disruption
70+8 pts
Reduce Manufacturing (auto/defense) Concentration Risk
Social Trust
37+4 pts
Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
Near-term (1-3 yr)+50 pts

9 actions within local control

  • - Reduce Manufacturing (auto/defense) Concentration Risk
  • - Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials
  • - Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response
  • - Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage
  • - Pre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: Auto assembly
  • - Sector-Aligned K-12 + Community College Pipeline
  • - Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact
  • - Registered Apprenticeship Expansion: Manufacturing (auto/defense)
  • - Industry 4.0 Accelerator at Electric Works
Medium-term (3-7 yr)+4 pts

2 actions requiring partnerships or advocacy

  • - Universal Broadband for AI Economy Participation
  • - Sector-Pivot Scholarship Voucher

Action Plan

Probable path

Top recommendations for Allen County, ranked by estimated impact. 11 total · +54 pts combined.

Who Can Act

Of 11 recommended actions for Allen County, 10 are within direct control. Tap a sphere to see the actions and what each one does.

Acting on the 10 local levers alone (+53 STEEPE pts) is the fastest path to shifting the probable→preferred future cone for this county.

Top Employers — Allen County

The 7 largest employers shaping the local labor market. Tap any row for the public-data profile and AI-exposure assessment.

Combined headcount across profiled employers: 21K globally · 2 benefiting · 5 not yet profiled

Economic Development Authority

Greater Fort Wayne Inc.

Allen County Together (ACT) 10-year plan

Website

Target Sectors

Automotive Technology / Industry 4.0DefenseMusic IndustryEntrepreneurship

Active Programs

  • +Electric Works innovation campus
  • +$10M venture fund/accelerator
  • +Southeast Fort Wayne catalytic development ($100M target)
  • +Workforce expansion 2026

Recent Wins

17 projects $120M+ capital 550 jobs
$120M550 jobs2025
Bombardier service center
100 jobs2025
$589M+ invested
$589M2024

Supporting detail

Open any section to dig into the underlying data.

Layoff history (WARN)

Federal layoff filings on the timeline

WARN Act Notices (2020-2026)

Notices

4

Workers

460

Layoff Rate

0.24%

of total employment

2025

85

Workers Affected by Year

200
2020
0
2021
175
2022
0
2023
0
2024
85
2025
0
2026

By Sector

Auto Manufacturing
300 (65%)
Defense/Aerospace
85 (18%)
Auto Parts Manufacturing
75 (16%)

Recent Notices

Raytheon/RTX Fort Wayne

Fort Wayne · Defense/Aerospace

Program completion and defense budget sequestration

85

Mar 2025

BorgWarner Auburn

Auburn · Auto Parts Manufacturing

ICE powertrain component line wind-down

75

Nov 2022

GM Fort Wayne (shift reduction)

Roanoke · Auto Manufacturing

Chip shortage, third-shift elimination on full-size truck line

100

Sep 2022

General Motors Fort Wayne Assembly

Roanoke · Auto Manufacturing

COVID-19 plant shutdown

200

Mar 2020

Source: Indiana DWD WARN. Federal WARN Act: 60-day notice for mass layoffs (50+ workers) at employers with 100+ employees.

Disruption scenarios

Exponential impact paths driven by the timeline

Exponential Impact Scenarios

Cross-signal alerts

When multiple risk signals converge on this county

Convergence Alerts

criticalAI-Economic Squeezestrength 38%
Economic 81/60AI 60/60Education 53/50

High economic disruption + rapid AI capability growth + education system stress creates a compound labor displacement risk. Industries face automation pressure while the workforce lacks retraining capacity.

Precedent: Rust Belt 2015-2020: manufacturing automation + trade disruption + inadequate workforce retraining led to persistent unemployment in affected counties.

Allen County: 3 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.

Full economic profile

Demographics, employment, sectors, incentives

EVI: stableBASELINEMetro (RUCC 1)

Housing & Infrastructure

Median Home Value

$185K

Homeownership

67%

Median Rent

$925

Broadband Access

87.0%

Avg Commute

21 min

Labor Force Part.

66.0%

Highly affordable housing market relative to job opportunities. Electric Works development creating new mixed-use downtown inventory. Strong homeownership culture.

Employment by Sector

Manufacturing (auto/defense)22%
Healthcare & Social17%
Retail Trade10%
Defense & Aerospace8%
Education7%

Population & Talent

Population

385K

Change Since 2020

+1.2%

Median Age

37

Modest domestic migration gains. Affordable housing attracting young families from costlier metros. Growing immigrant community.

State Incentive Programs

Available incentives from IEDC for business attraction and expansion in Allen County.

Economic Development for a Growing Economy (EDGE)

Tax Credit

Refundable income tax credits based on projected new payroll. Indiana's primary incentive for job creation. Credits calculated as a percentage of expected income tax withholdings from new employees over up to 10 years.

Max Benefit

Up to 100% of projected new payroll withholdings for up to 10 years

Eligibility

Companies creating new jobs in Indiana with above-average wages. Must demonstrate project would not occur in Indiana without incentive (but-for test).

Hoosier Business Investment (HBI) Tax Credit

Tax Credit

Non-refundable tax credit against Indiana income tax liability based on qualified capital investment. Supports companies making significant fixed-asset investments in Indiana facilities, equipment, and infrastructure.

Max Benefit

Up to 10% of qualified capital investment, carried forward up to 9 years

Eligibility

Companies making qualified capital investments of $1M+ in Indiana. Manufacturing, logistics, technology, and life sciences priorities.

Industrial Development Grant Fund (IDGF)

Grant

Performance-based grants for significant job creation and capital investment projects. Typically reserved for large-scale projects with transformative economic impact on a community.

Max Benefit

Negotiated; typically $1M-$50M for projects creating 100+ jobs

Eligibility

Major economic development projects creating substantial employment and capital investment. Competitive evaluation based on jobs, wages, investment, and community impact.

Skills Enhancement Fund (SEF)

Training

Grants to reimburse eligible training costs for new and existing employees. Supports workforce upskilling in advanced manufacturing, IT, and specialized technical skills.

Max Benefit

Up to $5,000 per employee trained; no cap on total employees

Eligibility

Indiana companies training employees in skills directly related to job functions. Priority for advanced manufacturing, IT, logistics, and life sciences sectors.

Headquarters Relocation Tax Credit

Tax Credit

Relocating a corporate headquarters to Indiana unlocks enhanced income tax credits. Designed for companies moving decision-making operations with high-wage executive and professional roles.

Max Benefit

Up to 100% of withholdings on relocated HQ employees for up to 10 years

Eligibility

Companies relocating corporate or divisional headquarters to Indiana. Must demonstrate significant executive/professional employment transfer.

Data Center Tax Exemptions

Exemption

Sales tax exemptions on qualifying data center equipment, electricity, and infrastructure purchases. Indiana's incentive to attract hyperscale and enterprise data center investment along I-65/I-70 corridors.

Max Benefit

100% sales tax exemption on qualified data center equipment and power (50+ year incentive period for qualifying investments of $750M+)

Eligibility

Data center operators investing $25M+ in qualified equipment. Tiered benefits based on investment level. Must create minimum employment.

Fort Wayne is Indiana's second-largest city with a strong manufacturing base. Defense sector (Raytheon, General Dynamics) provides stability. Downtown revitalization and Electric Works adaptive reuse project creating new economy opportunities.

Sources

Census ACS 5-Year 2023: Allen CountyBLS LAUS: Fort Wayne MSAGreater Fort Wayne Inc.

Grant matches

Federal funding aligned to county levers

Best-Fit Incentive Programs

State programs matched to Allen County's industry mix, workforce needs, and recommended actions.

Skills Enhancement Fund (SEF)
TrainingUp to $5,000 per employee trained; no cap on total employees
80
  • +Matches manufacturing focus
  • +Matches life sciences focus
  • +Funds 6 recommended actions

Recommended for: Close the Skills Gap with AI-Ready Credentials, Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response, Pre-emptive Reskilling Pipeline: Auto assembly

Hoosier Business Investment (HBI) Tax Credit
Tax CreditUp to 10% of qualified capital investment, carried forward up to 9 years
70
  • +Matches manufacturing focus
  • +Matches life sciences focus
  • +Funds 5 recommended actions

Recommended for: Reduce Manufacturing (auto/defense) Concentration Risk, Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage, Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact

Industrial Development Grant Fund (IDGF)
GrantNegotiated; typically $1M-$50M for projects creating 100+ jobs
45
  • +Funds 6 recommended actions
  • +County scale supports large-project grants
  • +Supports AI transition investment

Recommended for: Reduce Manufacturing (auto/defense) Concentration Risk, Pre-Positioned Displaced Worker Rapid Response, Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage

Economic Development for a Growing Economy (EDGE)
Tax CreditUp to 100% of projected new payroll withholdings for up to 10 years
40
  • +Funds 5 recommended actions
  • +Supports AI transition investment

Recommended for: Reduce Manufacturing (auto/defense) Concentration Risk, Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage, Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact

Headquarters Relocation Tax Credit
Tax CreditUp to 100% of withholdings on relocated HQ employees for up to 10 years
40
  • +Funds 5 recommended actions
  • +Supports AI transition investment

Recommended for: Reduce Manufacturing (auto/defense) Concentration Risk, Convert AI Vulnerability into First-Mover Advantage, Anchor Employer AI Co-Investment Compact

Target industries

Sectors prioritized by the county strategy

Sectors aligned with the county’s Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy and AI impact assessment.

1.Defense & Aerospace

AI mixed

Raytheon, BAE Systems, General Dynamics. Fort Wayne is a defense electronics corridor. Wire harness and avionics manufacturing.

2.Advanced Manufacturing

AI headwind

Steel Dynamics HQ, BorgWarner (EV powertrain), General Motors Fort Wayne Assembly (full-size trucks). Largest truck plant in North America.

3.Healthcare

AI tailwind

Parkview Health (largest NE Indiana employer), Lutheran Health Network. Regional medical center serving tri-state area.

4.Insurance & Financial Services

AI headwind

Lincoln Financial Group origins, Brotherhood Mutual. Fort Wayne has deep insurance heritage.

Best-case opportunities

What this county wins in the preferred future

Sources

Government, academic, and live data feeds

Census QuickFacts: Allen CountyGreater Fort Wayne Inc.
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