Population
55.0M
GDP
$60B
Top Disruption
Political
80/100
Future Path
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Myanmar faces concentrated disruption across 3 dimensions, centered on political risk (80/100). Social trust (70/100) and political risk form the dual pressure points to watch.
Disruption Profile
High — Active disruption underway in key sectors
High — Building pressure in all sectors — especially finance
High — Building pressure in key sectors
Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors
Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors
Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries
Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries
Low — Limited disruption signal
Minimal — Limited disruption signal
Myanmar vs State Average
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Convergence Alerts
Social trust erosion + political instability creates conditions for governance dysfunction, contested elections, and regulatory paralysis.
Precedent: 2020-2024: US political polarization + institutional trust decline produced contested elections, regulatory uncertainty, and capital flight from affected jurisdictions.
Myanmar: 2 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.
Political instability + economic stress + declining social trust creates a governance crisis environment. Regulatory uncertainty compounds economic disruption.
Precedent: 2008-2010: Financial crisis + political polarization + institutional trust erosion created conditions for lasting policy instability.
Myanmar: 3 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.
Approaching convergence threshold. 1 dimension still below trigger level.
AI Impact Analysis
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Key Traits
Analysis
A nation in civil war following the 2021 military coup, with ethnic armed organizations, a digital resistance movement, and resource wealth contested between the junta and opposition forces.
## Key dynamics (2025-2026)
- **Civil war**: The February 2021 coup triggered the broadest armed resistance in Myanmar's history. The National Unity Government (NUG) coordinates with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and People's Defence Forces (PDFs) across the country. The junta (State Administration Council) controls major cities but has lost significant territory, particularly in Shan, Chin, Kayah, and Sagaing. - **Digital resistance**: The NUG operates as a shadow government using encrypted communications, digital fundraising (including crypto donations), and social media coordination. Spring Revolution participants use decentralized networks to evade junta surveillance. - **Resources**: Myanmar's jade industry (estimated $31B annually by Global Witness) and offshore natural gas (Yadana, Shwe fields) are the junta's primary revenue sources. International campaigns target gas revenue as a sanctions lever, but Thailand and China remain major buyers. - **Humanitarian crisis**: Over 3 million internally displaced, with ~18 million in need of humanitarian assistance (UN OCHA). Healthcare, education, and banking systems have partially collapsed in conflict zones. The economy contracted ~18% in 2021 and has not recovered to pre-coup levels. - **Geopolitics**: China and India share borders with Myanmar and maintain pragmatic engagement with the junta while managing refugee flows and cross-border instability. ASEAN's "Five-Point Consensus" has failed to produce results. Western sanctions target junta leadership and military-linked enterprises.
See also: [[asean-noninterference-crisis]], [[resource-curse-conflict]].
Sources
Post-February 2021 coup, Myanmar is in civil war between the military junta (SAC) and a broad resistance coalition including the NUG (National Unity Government), ethnic armed organizations, and People's Defence Forces. GDP collapsed ~18% in 2021 and recovery is limited. Jade and natural gas are primary revenue sources for the junta. Massive internal displacement (~3 million). STEEPE baseline reflects 2025-2026 crisis state.
Active Predictions
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