🇬🇹 Guatemala

GTM · Guatemala City · 17.7M people

Timeline
2026Present
NOW
EVENT HORIZON
2020202620302035204020452050

Population

17.7M

GDP

$102B

Top Disruption

Political

65/100

Future Path

Select a future path. All sections below update automatically.

Disruption Digest

Guatemala shows moderate disruption levels overall (avg 42/100), with political risk as the leading signal. Ecological stress (60/100) and political risk form the dual pressure points to watch.

Disruption Profile

Baseline + Probable

High — Active disruption underway in key sectors

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Building pressure in key sectors

Moderate — Building pressure in all sectors — especially finance

Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries

Moderate — Moderate exposure across select industries

Low — Moderate exposure across select industries

Low — Moderate exposure across knowledge work

Minimal — Limited disruption signal

Guatemala vs State Average

Click a dimension label to explore

Guatemala State

Convergence Alerts

highPolitical-Economic Instabilitystrength 25%
Political 65/55Economic 55/55Social 55/50

Political instability + economic stress + declining social trust creates a governance crisis environment. Regulatory uncertainty compounds economic disruption.

Precedent: 2008-2010: Financial crisis + political polarization + institutional trust erosion created conditions for lasting policy instability.

Guatemala: 3 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.

highClimate-Economic Nexusstrength 25%
Ecological 60/55Economic 55/50

Ecological stress amplifies economic disruption through insurance costs, infrastructure damage, supply chain disruptions, and forced migration patterns.

Precedent: Hurricane Katrina (2005), Texas winter storm (2021): climate events created multi-year economic disruption in affected regions.

Guatemala: 2 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.

highSocial-Political Fracturestrength 25%
Social 55/55Political 65/55

Social trust erosion + political instability creates conditions for governance dysfunction, contested elections, and regulatory paralysis.

Precedent: 2020-2024: US political polarization + institutional trust decline produced contested elections, regulatory uncertainty, and capital flight from affected jurisdictions.

Guatemala: 2 dimensions converging above thresholds simultaneously.

AI Impact Analysis

Click Generate to analyze anti-AI sentiment and create a SWOT analysis for Guatemala using xAI Grok.

Key Traits

US Migration OriginRemittance Economy ($21B)Arévalo Anti-CorruptionIndigenous MajorityDrug Transit CountryClimate Vulnerability

Sources

Active Predictions

View all predictions

See how TerraMetrics' Oracle tracks geopolitical signals affecting Guatemala.

View prediction track record